Early elections are close at hand

No parties in Turkey achieved a majority in the June 7 general elections to form a government on their own. A party needs to have at least 276 deputies to form a government alone. The Justice and Development Party (AK Party), which has been in power for 13 years, has 258 deputies while the Republican People's Party (CHP) has 132 deputies and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) have 80 deputies each. Coalition talks between the parties will start soon after the Parliament presidency council elections. The statutory period is 45 days. However, it is expected that a positive or negative result will be reached in a shorter period of time. Let us take a look at possible scenarios.

AK Party-CHP coalition: The total number of deputies from the two parties is 390 and the representation rate is 66 percent. However, the two parties are almost the antithesis of each other. The AK Party argues for social and economic policies for disadvantaged groups and the middle class that has risen from 20 percent to 40 percent over the past 13 years whereas the CHP regards such policies as spending the state's opportunities in a populist way. The CHP considers the AK Party's perspective of demilitarization and fight against military tutelage is a betrayal. The CHP also thinks that the reconciliation process, which the AK Party initiated to end the 30-year implicit civil war with the separatist PKK, is a mistake that will result in division. Furthermore, for the CHP, the AK Party's reforms, which are aimed at isolated religious women in the public sphere due to their daily practices, are a threat to secularism. It is possible to extend this list of contrasts that form the axes of the parties. Some argue that the possible coalition between the two parties will smooth differences and bring reconciliation. However, it is unclear to what extent the electorate, who supports the parties because of their approaches to the abovementioned issues, will accept this, with reactions having already starting.

AK Party-MHP coalition: If these parties come together, they will have 338 deputies and a representation rate of 57 percent. Since both parties have religious voters, the base transitivity between the two parties is quite high. However, the AK Party's reformist attitude in areas such as the Kurdish question, democratization and integration with the EU is troubling for the MHP, which is ultra-nationalist. Moreover, the MHP reveals its intention to score points in the long run by remaining outside of coalition scenarios.

AK Party-HDP coalition: The number of deputies from the two parties adds up to 338 while their representation rate is 54 percent. Indeed, the voters of both parties are not so far from each other considering that a large majority of the 7 percent of the vote that enabled the HDP to pass the 10 percent election threshold, came from the AK Party's religious Kurdish voters. However, the HDP regards the AK Party as the only target to hit, although it took the greatest risk in the history of the Republic to resolve the Kurdish issue, which the HDP defines as its motive of existence. Although this is a contrast, it is comprehensible in terms of political competition. Soon after the elections, both parties closed their doors to a coalition.

CHP-MHP-HDP coalition: This coalition formula in which parties that have been in the opposition for 13 years would take part fizzled out from the very beginning. This is because the MHP cannot tolerate even being mentioned in the same sentence as the HDP, which is the legal wing of the separatist PKK.

As can be seen, there are great contrasts. In addition to all these disputes, the CHP, MHP and HDP put forward their demand for the restriction of the authorities of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as redlines during coalition talks. For the AK Party, it is impossible to negotiate such an offer that is aimed at Erdoğan, who is the founder of their party. The AK Party is at ease because it will not fall from power in possible early elections once again and the most severe picture it will face will not be different from the current one. Let us see whether there will be a consensus in the coming days despite this picture. For now, the strongest possibility on the horizon is to hold early elections within three months after coalition talks end in a way stipulated by law. Opinion polls reveal that the electorate is of the same opinion. There is no need for Turkey to fear a new election as it is the only country that is capable of holding free elections in the region.